I have to apologise that I have not been able to update the blog regularly due to constant illness- I have been bed-ridden for pretty much the last week or so. I will try and update the blog again after the Tour De France and hope that you will keep reading!
Stage 11
In my my opinion, this stage will decide the Tour. The stage begins with a shirt flat run in to the opening climb of the day- a 25.3km climb of the hors-categorie climb of the Col de Madeleine. This climb averages out at 6.2%. However, if you look at the profile of the climb specifically, you will notice that 3 of these km are either descending or are flat- reducing the average. After passing over the Madeleine, the significantly smaller peloton will then pass over the 22.4km climb of the Col de la Croix de Fer. This climb averages out at 6.9% and may provide a spring board for attack for a rider such as Thomas Voeckler. The descent to the Col du Mollard is not overly technical and sets them up perfectly for this shorter, 2nd category climb. 16km of descending later and the riders will reach the final climb of the day (and the second of 3 summit finishes) la Toussuire. This 18km climb averages at 6.1% but with many areas exceeding that. The flat section with 7km to the end may provoke an attack from a GC contender but one thing is for sure- if you are not in the front group today; you will not win the Tour De France.
This stage will be crucial for all GC contenders- especially Bradley Wiggins who will be able to see whether he can stay with the likes of Cadel Evans and Frank Schleck. Again, I can see Schleck ( who is in good form after a strong Tour De Suisse), challenge for stage honours with Wiggins, Menchov, Nibali, Van Den Broeck and Evans fighting it out behind.
My opinion on stage winner: Jurgen Van Den Broeck
Surprise of the stage: Wiggins holding onto Evans
Tour of Poland
Stage 2
The second stage of this years Tour of Poland will be decided by the sprinters. This stage is around 200km long and will undoubtedly be a very fast run in. Tom Boonen and Thor Hushovd will probably be the main favourites for the stage win today as there is no real climb to trouble them but expect Haedo, one of the Rabobank sprinters, Leigh Howard and even Ben Swift can challenge the top 2 for the stage win.
Review
The 2nd stage of the 2012 Tour of Poland was one for the sprinters with the finish being predominately flat on the finish circuit. The early morning breakaway contained 4 riders: Lucasz Bodnar, Damian Walkzac Diego Caccia and Adrian Kurek. The breakaway broke away after just 5km of the stage but were kept under wraps as Bodnar was not too far behind the leader and quickly became the virtual leader of the race. Bodnar mopped up the intermediate sprint points for each of the three sprints so he could take the red intermediate sprints jersey for tomorrow. Caccia also took the only mountain points available on the only ‘climb’ of the day. Due to it being such a small climb, only 3 points were on offer so he posed no threat to Daniel Teklahaiminot and the mountains classification.
As the end grew nearer, the peloton brought back the escape group with ease. The sprinters teams took it up on the front with Liquigas and Omega-Pharma Quickstep doing the majority. There was a fall in the bunch on the second of the three circuits with race leader Moreno Moser being caught up in it. He did however, manage to get back into the peloton by the finish. As the end grew nearer, Team Sky came to the fore slightly more, with Juan Antonio Flecha and Matt Hayman bringing him up and Ian Stannard giving Swift the perfect leadout. Swift went for the line and staved off the challenge of Viviani and Boonen to take the stage win.
Results
Stage Results
Mountains Classification
Intermediate Sprint Classification
Stage 10
Stage 10
After the efforts expended on Mondays time trial being recovered on the previous rest day, the Tour goes back to the Mountains- climbing possibly the hardest mountain in France- the Col du Grand Colombier. This 17.4km climb averages only at 7.1% but has sections reaching 18%- with the middle 3 km averaging 10%. The average is severely reduced by a plateau near the top (0.6% for 1km) but is still a fearsome climb. Especially considering there is still one more climb- although only a 3rd category.
This stage is difficult to predict because the main climb of the Colombier is 40km away from the finish. However, expect a group of 5-10 of the strongest climbers to get away and fight for stage victory for themselves. If the break is missed by a main contender- expect fireworks.
This stage could suit Vincenzo Nibali and Samuel Sanchez perfectly due to their descending prowess. However, expect Cadel Evans to try and pressurise likely yellow Jersey holder Bradley Wiggins on the Richemond and the kick up to the finish.
Tour of Poland
The Tour of Poland will involve riders who have been not picked for the Tour as well as riders who are aiming for the Giro and Vuelta this year. The Tour of Poland also has a more mountainous terrain than usual which will draw more climbers than usual. It also has stages similar to the Olympic road race with this attracting contenders for this as well. There are a lot of riders who can contend but only a few who can really win.
Eros Capecchi
Capecchi was one of the most tipped riders to challenge GC riders in the grand Tours in his early days. However, this promise has never really been fulfilled: with him being demoted to helping Nibali and Basso: his team leaders at Grand Tours (2011 Vuelta and 2012 Giro). He is undoubtedly the best climber in the Liquigas team for this Tour and will be given his chance to shine. I expect a top 10 finish if he is in decent shape.
Marco Pinotti
Marco Pinotti will most likely be the leader of the BMC team in the mountains- as I am not certain Ballan can hold on when it gets ultra-steep. However, Pinotti will be able to hang on in the big climbs. The lack of a time trial will dent his GC hopes with a stage win for him or a team-mate may be his main aim.
Przemyslaw Niemiec
Niemiec loves placing high up in his home Tour (finishing 11th here last year) and will be hoping he can lead the Lampre team. This will only happen if Anacona has not found form after his injury- which I believe could be probable. Niemiec is a very strong climber and will challenge the best in the big climbs.
Alexander Kolobnev
Kolobnev may be a controversial rider due to his previous doping bans, he is undoubtedly a very strong climber on the short punchy climbs. He could be a real threat when the road goes uphill and may be a big contender on stages 1, 3 and 5.
Roman Kreuziger
Kreuziger is almost undoubtedly the outright favourite for this race due to his amazing climbing ability and strong team around him. With Egor Silin, Paolo Tiralongo and Enrico Gasparotto as team mates, he will be a danger on the bug stages. However, expect him to help his team mates when the stage ends flat.
Rafal Majka
Majka is a promising young climber who had a n extremely good Vuelta a Espana in 2011- finsihing 20th in one of the big mountain stages. He did not finish the race due to a slight recurring injury. He has not had an amazing season this year and will hoping to get his season back on track in his home tour. Vlodymir Gustov could be joint leader with this man on the climbs.
Sergey Lagutin
Lagutin is an interesting rider who can climb: the question being how well in comparison to the ProTour teams. He will probably end up targeting a stage win rather than being a GC threat.
Tom Jelte Slagter
One of the revelations of the Giro as he put in amazing efforts on the short uphill climbs- challenging Visconti and Rodriguez on the short punchy Stage 10. He could be a big threat overall as he is the only climber in the Rabobank team. Expect fireworks in the mountains.
Tiago Machado
Although Jan Bakelants is declared as the number one rider, I wouldn’t be overly surprised if Machado’s consistency got him a high GC place. He is on of my personal favourite riders due to his amazing climbing ability- potential that should be allowed to sine in the Grand Tours. I’m expecting a top 5 performance.
Christophe Le Mevel
Le Mevel is an interesting rider who can climb very well but struggles to show himself in the Grand Tours (since his 14th in the 2011 Giro). He is a very strong climber but the climbs in the Tour of Poland may not be quite long enough for Le Mevel. He will need to attack a lot to win.
Sergio Henao+ Rigoberto Uran
Sky’s double pronged Colombian climbing force of Henao and Uran will be Kreuziger’s main threat this Tour. Both of them can climb well and expect attacks from both of them to try and break Kreuizger in the Mountains. Strong men with big futures.
Rinaldo Nocentini
Nocentini is having one the best season of his life with a high finish in the Dauphine and the Tirreno-Adriatico. He will be a dark horse for the overall and could beat Kreuziger when it gets very steep. A good chance for GC.
Giovanni Visconti
Visconti is one of the strongest puncheurs in the world who can challenge even Gilbert in the classics when he as at his best. He rode well in the Giro and can actually challenge in the GC if he can consistently put in the top performance on the climbs- consistency will be the key.
Igor Anton
Anton needs some form for the Vuelta and quickly. He has struggled to ride well this year with a 9th in the Ruta del Sol his best result. At his best, he can beat Kreuziger but at the moment he is far from his best. Don’t expect heroics.
Domenico Pozzovivo
Pozzovivo has had his best Grand Tour performance at the 2012 Giro pressurising for a victory for most of the race and was probably the strongest climber for the first two weeks. As this is a 1 week race, Pozzovivo could really threaten Kreuziger overall.
Marek Rutkiewicz
Rutkiewicz had an amazing Tour of Poland last year (finishing 10th) and has showed his power on the climbs again this season. He will be a threat overall if he can replicate his form from this season- which has been extremely good.
Alexandre Geniez
Geniez is a rider who should have been in the Tour de France squad for Argos-Shimano as he would have added another dimension to their team. However, this Tour will allow him to get ready for the Vuelta a Espana where he will be hoping to challenge overall in his first grand Tour. Strong climber and future threat.
This is an extremely Tour to predict but expect multiple attacks on descents and the climbs. I would expect Kreuziger to win but also the Colombians to push them close.
The Tour of Poland
Preview
This years Tour of Poland (moved to avoid clashing with the Olympics) looks like the hardest Tour for many years; suiting the strong climbers.
The opening stage of the Tour is a circuit race which has a very hard first category climb in the middle. This will probably not be a stage for the sprinters but riders like Boonen and Hushovd may be able to hang on. I expect climbers to attack the strong men on the climb so Rigoberto Uran, Tiago Machado, Roman Kreuziger and even Andrew Talansky may attack here. I feel that the sprinters might just be able to hold on: with Tom Boonen taking the sprint. however, I wouldn’t be shocked if an elite group of climbers managed to distance them
Review
The 69th Tour of Poland got under way yesterday with riders not chosen for the Tour De France as well as riders targeting the Olympics coming here instead with points to prove. The first stage was likely to be a bunch sprint with around 30-40 of the riders- the puncheurs most likely to succeed. The opening attack of the day managed to build up a gap very quickly and the breakaway riders where Daniel Teklahaiminot, Bartlmiej Matyskiak, Frederico Rochetti, Jaroslaw Marcyz and Sylvain Georges. Teklahaiminot was undoubtedly the strongest climber in the group but had to settle for 2nd on the opening climb of the day behind Matyskiak. The nest two climbs, however, did go to Teklahaiminot- so he took the climbers jersey for the next stage. The breakaway was brought back on the final ascent of the Karpacz-Orelink climb and Team Sky’s Luis Henao pulled the peloton over the top. The peloton at this point, had shed and there was around 30 riders present when the downhill began.
The small peloton then suffered a barrage of attacks: first from a small group including Kolobnev and Nordhaug and then by Garmin_sharp’s Christophe Le Mevel ( a rider with a point to prove) Le Mevel led until the 6km to go mark where Alexander Kolobnev flew past Le Mevel and went for solo glory. However, the 2.5% gradient of the last kilometre took it out of Kolobnev’s legs and he was brought back with around 500m to go. The peloton seemed to misjudge the distance to the line as Moreno Moser of Liquigas jumped out of the pack and sprinted away from them- with what looked like little response. Moser crossed the line 8 bike lengths clear and won his first ProTour stage.
Stage Results
Mountains Classification
Intermediate Sprint Classifcation
Points Classification
Stage 8
Stage 8 of the Tour de France was tipped for being a stage for breakaway riders to succeed and get a stage win. This was undoubtedly seen by the big number of attacks early that morning; with many riders who were chasing the King of the mountains jersey knowing they have to attack today. The first break contained 19 riders but none from Astana so they quickly brought everyone back except Jens Voigt who attacked and took the opening points of the day on the 4th category climb. Voigt led the escape over the next climb but was then quickly brought back into the bunch. The breakaway finally got away after 20km and the break included 20 riders: Moinard, Gallopin, Kern, Marzano, Nerz, Peraud, Cherel, Kadri, Moncoutie, Jeandesboz, Hoogerland, Valls Ferri, Caruso, Pinot, Kruiswijk, Mollema, Ten Dam, Kiriyenka, Sorensen, Kisierlovski, De Weert and Weening. Jeremy Roy caught the group and rode straight through them. Back in the peloton, Valverde and Sanchez crashed, with the Olympic champion pulling out fo the race with a suspected broken collarbone.
Kessiakoff attacked the group on the third to last climb of the day catching and riding past Roy. This lead was sustained until the final category one climb of the day when Pinot rode up to and straight past Kessiakoff ( after leaving Gallopin behind). Tony Gallopin stayed in the group : led by Vanendert and Van Den Broeck who were trying to get Van Den Broeck some time back after the bad luck on Le Planche des Belles Filles. A group of 9 riders: Wiggins, Froome, Evans, Menchov, Nibali, Zubeldia, Schleck, van den Broeck and Horner could stick with this pace: with Gallopin and Kessiakoff being caught and finishing in the group. Evans and van Den Broeck tried to attack Wiggins on the run-in but could not get away. Up the road, Thibaut Pinot took the stage win: the youngest rider beating the established favourites in the run in.
Stage Results
General Classification
General Classification
Stage 7
Stage 7 is the first medium mountains stage with pundits split: some saying their will be big time gaps and others saying it will only be a few seconds. Le Planche des Belles Filles is a worthy inclusion in the Tour De France and could definetly be included in future Tours. This climb has some sections at over 20% which will challenge even the best climbers: the question was will Wiggins take yellow?
The stage began with 19 riders trying to get away but being brought back relatively quickly. However, a breakaway did get away and it consisted of Christophe Riblon, Luis Leon Sanchez, Chris Anker Sorensen, Martin Velits, Michael Albasini, Cyril Gautier and Dmitri Fofonov. The breakaway quickly established a gap of around 6 minutes and held this lead until the intermediate sprint point: which the breakaway just rode through. Behind, Peter Sagan out sprinted Goss (who had an error with his bike) to a relatively easy 8th in the sprint and realised it was pretty much day over for him. The top of the first categorised climb ( the col de Grosse Pierre) resulted in Chris Anker Sorensen picking up 2pts and L.L Sanchez picking up the one. Christian Knees of Team Sky limited the losses of the peloton- by monitoring the pace and staying on the front.
Chris Anker Sorensen took two more points on the Mont De Fourche again ahead of Luis Leon Sanchez. The race progressed and the peloton brought the gap down to 1min 25s with only 15km to go. Here Fofonov was grasping at straws and attacked on the steady gradient before the Le Planche des Belles Filles. Garmin, Lotto and Katusha all had stints leading the peloton when disaster struck for Valverde and van Den Broeck who both punctured just before the climb.
Team Sky’s Edvald Boasson Hagen led the peloton to the final climb of the day before peeling off and falling off the back. van Den Broeck had only just rejoined when the bottom of the climb was reached. Michael Rogers then took over at the foot of the treacherous climb. Rogers dished out the pain breaking the Yellow jersey of Cancellara and frank Schleck relatively early. He also managed to get rid of Cadel Evans’s right hand man Tejay Van Garderen, Bauke Mollema, Robert Gesink, Ivan Basso and Levi Leipheimer before moving over for Richie Porte to take over. Porte upped the pace again with under 10 riders able to stick with the pace of Team Sky. With 3km to go, Nicholas Roche was dropped along with Pierre Rolland and shortly after Samuel Sanchez before Porte pulled over with only 2km remaining.
Froome takes over and injects another burst of speed into the group, dropping Zubeldia and Menchov leaving Taarame, Wiggins, Evans, Nibali and Froome fight for the stage: the fight for the yellow jersey had just been shaped. At the final corner of the stage Evans attempted to burst away from the peloton with Wiggins sticking on his wheel. Chris Froome and Vincenzo Nibali stuck with him on the 20%+ section before Froome came out of the wheels and burst past Evans: taking the stage in the process. Evans followed him home with Wiggins on his wheel. A few seconds back were Nibali and Taarame at around 20s.
Col De Grosse Pierre (3rd Category)
Stage 6
Stage 6 turned out to be one of the most dramatic days of the Tour of recent years. This day shaped the General Classification and decided who will have the chance to fight for the Tour in the mountains. Stage 6 was not tipped as an important stage- with only one categorised climbs with many straight, wide roads. The morning breakaway consisted of Dave Zabriskie, Karsten Kroon, Romain Zingle and Davide Malacarne. Early in the stage Andre Greipel crashed with Lieuwe Westra but nothing serious: they easily rejoined the peloton. Peraud, Gesink and Valverde ( 3big GC threats) were caught on in this crash and where all involved also- with no real underlying injury. The intermediate sprint soon came after around 100km with Greipel not participating ( the injury from the crash more serious than first thought).
The top of the cote de Bruixieres resulted in Dave Zabriskie getting the only point of the day. However, at the bottom of this climb, a massive pile up occurred in the peloton with Gesink, Greipel, Mollema and Farrar being the big names caught up. Greipel was well and truly hurt but kept going.
More bad news for the peloton with the third and final crash of the day involving more than half of the peloton with riders including Frank Schleck, Ryder Hesjedal, Wouter Poels, Mark Cavendish and Edvald Boasson Hagen being only a few of the riders caught up in the horrific crash. The depleted peloton continued on to catch David Zabriskie but only in the final kilometre. Lotto-Belisol decided that Greipel was going to sprint despite his injuries (which turned out to be a dislocated shoulder!)- with an amazing leadout train for him. However, Sagan jumped out of Greipel’s wheel and took his 3rd stage of the Tour but the first in the bunch sprint.
Cote de Bruixieres (4th Category)
1. David Zabriskie 1pt
Intermediate Sprint Results
Stage 8
The Tour De France takes a detour into Switzerland today and throws 3 second category climb and a first category climb into the second half of the stage. By the time the peloton reach the Col De La Croix, it will be a reasonably select group anyway but the first category climb that averages a whopping 9.2%,( with some areas reaching 17%) will leave only the riders in the best shape near the front. However, there may be time for dropped riders to rejoin the peloton on the descent and the flat run into the finish.
It is possible on a stage like today that the overall contenders that are weaker at time trialling will again attack. However, riders such as Albasini, Gerrans and even Peter Sagan (if he wants to) will get over these climbs and challenge for stage victory. Furthermore, the peloton would be unlikely to chase as they have minimal chance of taking the overall.
My prediction for stage winner: Peter Sagan
Surprise of the stage: Cadel Evans failing to pressurise Bradley Wiggins
World Cycling Blog 