Tour De France 2012 Stage 11 Preview

Stage 11

In my my opinion, this stage will decide the Tour. The stage begins with a shirt flat run in to the opening climb of the day- a 25.3km climb of the hors-categorie climb of the Col de Madeleine. This climb averages out at 6.2%. However, if you look at the profile of the climb specifically, you will notice that 3 of these km are either descending or are flat- reducing the average.  After passing over the Madeleine, the significantly smaller peloton will then pass over the 22.4km climb of the Col de la Croix de Fer. This climb averages out at 6.9% and may provide a spring board for attack for a rider such as Thomas Voeckler. The descent to the Col du Mollard is not overly technical and sets them up perfectly for this shorter, 2nd category climb. 16km of descending later and the riders will reach the final climb of the day (and the second of 3 summit finishes) la Toussuire. This 18km climb averages at 6.1% but with many areas exceeding that. The flat section with 7km to the end  may provoke an attack from a GC contender but one thing is for sure- if you are not in the front group today; you will not win the Tour De France.

This stage will be crucial for all GC contenders- especially Bradley Wiggins who will be able to see whether he can stay with the likes of Cadel Evans and Frank Schleck. Again, I can see Schleck ( who is in good form after a strong Tour De Suisse), challenge for stage honours with Wiggins, Menchov, Nibali, Van Den Broeck and Evans fighting it out behind.

My opinion on stage winner: Jurgen Van Den Broeck

Surprise of the stage: Wiggins holding onto Evans

Tour De France 2012 Stage 10 Preview

Stage 10

Stage 10

After the efforts expended on Mondays  time trial being recovered on the previous rest day, the Tour goes back to the Mountains- climbing possibly the hardest mountain in France- the Col du Grand Colombier.  This 17.4km climb averages only at 7.1% but has sections reaching 18%- with the middle 3 km averaging 10%. The average is severely reduced by a plateau near the top (0.6% for 1km) but is still a fearsome climb. Especially considering there is still one more climb- although only a 3rd category.

This stage is difficult to predict because the main climb of the Colombier is 40km away from the finish. However, expect a group of 5-10 of the strongest climbers to get away and fight for stage victory for themselves. If the break is missed by a main contender- expect fireworks.

This stage could suit Vincenzo Nibali and Samuel Sanchez perfectly due to their descending prowess. However, expect Cadel Evans to try and pressurise likely yellow Jersey holder Bradley Wiggins on the Richemond and the kick up to the finish.

Tour De France 2012 Preview: Yellow Jersey

Yellow Jersey  (* team-mate- only have GC chance if leader struggles)

The yellow jersey is given to the rider who finishes the whole Tour De France in the lowest accumulative time. The rider who wins it has to be a good climber, decent on the flat and a strong time triallist- master of all trades. This year, two big protaganists in Andy Schleck and Alberto Contador miss out on competeing- making the race more wide open. Each of the contenders will be marked out of 15 on climbing, time trialling and team with a mark out of 5 given for form

KEY

35-50= Main Protagonist

20-34= Top 10 contender

19 or lower= No real hope of top placing

Cadel Evans

Climbing Ability 13/15 

Time Trial Ability 12/15

Team 13/15

Form 5/5

Overall 43/50

Bradley Wiggins

Climbing Ability 12/15

Time Trial Ability 14/15

Team 14/15

Form 4/5

Overall 44/50

Vincenzo Nibali

Climbing Ability 13/15

Time Trial Ability 12/15

Team 11/15

Form 3/5

Overall 39/50

Jurgen Van Den Broeck

Climbing Ability 13/15

Time Trial Ability 10/15

Team 10/15

Form 4/5

Overall 37/50

Jean-Christophe Peraud

Climbing Ability 9/15

Time Trial Ability 12/15

Team 9/15

Form 1/5

Overall 31/50

Janez Brajkovic

Climbing Ability 8/15

Time Trial Ability 12/15

Team 10/15

Form 4/5

Overall 34/50

Alexandre Vinokourov

Climbing Ability 10/15

Time Trialling Ability 10/15

Team 10/15

Form 1/5

Overall 31/50

Rein Taaramae

Climbing Ability 11/15

Time Trial Ability 10/15

Team 8/15

Form 2/5

Overall 31/50

Samuel Sanchez

Climbing Ability 13/15

Time Trial Ability 10/15

Team 10/15

Form 2/5

Overall 35/50

Thibaut Pinot

Climbing Ability 10/15

Time Trial Ability 7/15

Team 8/15

Form 4/5

Overall 29/50

Ryder Hesjedal

Climbing Ability 12/15

Time Trial Ability 12/15

Team 12/15

Form 4/5

Overall 40/50

Tom Danielson

Climbing Ability 9/15

Time Trial Ability 9/15

Team 12/15

Form 4/5

Overall 34/50

Denis Menchov

Climbing Ability 13/15

Time Trial Ability 10/15

Team 9/15

Form 3/5

Overall 35/50

Michele Scarponi

Climbing Ability 10/15

Time trial Ability 7/15 

Team 9/15

Form 3/5

Overall 29/50

Alejandro Valverde

Climbing Ability 12/15

Time Trial Ability 9/15

Team 10/15

Form 4/5

Overall 35/50

Juan Jose Cobo Acebo

Climbing Ability 11/15

Time Trial Ability 10/15

Team 10/15

Form 0/5 

Overall 31/50

Levi Leipheimer

Climbing Ability 11/15

Time Trial Ability 13/15

Team 8/15

Form 4/5

Overall 36/50

Peter Velits

Climbing Ability 10/15

Time Trial Ability 11/15

Team 8/15

Form 3/5

Overall 32/50

Peter Weening

Climbing Ability 10/15

Time Trial Ability 8/15

Team 2/15

Form 4/5 

Overall 24/50

Robert Gesink

Climbing Ability 12/15

Time Trial Ability 11/15

Team 13/15

Form 4/5

Overall 40/50

Steven Kruijswijk*

Climbing Ability 10/15

Time Trial Ability 10/15

Team 13/15

Form 4/5

Overall 37/50

Bauke Mollema*

Climbing Ability 11/15

Time Trial Ability 10/15

Team 13/15

Form 3/5 

Overall 37/50

Frank Schleck

Climbing Ability 14/15

Time Trail Ability 7/15

Team 13/15

Form 3/5

Overall 37/50

Christopher Horner

Climbing Ability 12/15

Time Trial Ability 9/15 

Team 13/15

Form 3/5 

Overall 37/50

Andreas Kloden

Climbing Ability 10/15

Time Trail Ability 13/15

Team 13/15

Form 2/5

Overall 38/50

Maxime Monfort

Climbing Ability 9/15

Time Trial Ability 10/15

Team 13/15

Form 2/5

Overall 34/50

Jerome Coppel

Climbing Ability 11/15

Time Trial Ability 10/15

Team 10/15

Form 3/5

Overall 34/50

Christopher Froome*

Climbing Ability 11/15

Time Trial Ability 11/15

Team 14/15

Form 4/5

Overall 40/50

Pierre Rolland

Climbing Ability 11/15

Time Trial Ability 9/15

Team 9/15

Form 3/5

Overall 32/50

Wouter Poels

Climbing Ability 10/15

Time Trial Ability 8/15

Team 8/15

Form 4/5 

Overall 30/50

There are many riders in with a shout of a top 10 overall but only a handful who have the ability to take the win. I cannot see past Wiggins in his form but Evans, Gesink and Nibali will give him a big challenge

Tour De France 2012 Team Rosters: Radioshack-Nissan

Radioshack-Nissan

Radioshack-Nissan formed at the start of 2012 with a merger between 2 of cycling’s super teams- Radioshack and Leopard-Trek. This team managed by Johan Bruyneel is a team that focuses on GC success rather than individual honours. However, for the 2012 Tour De France, the team will be without Andy Schleck through injury and his brother, Frank Schleck, states that he is not going for the GC either- making the team selection even more interesting.

Fabian Cancellara: Fabian Cancellara is one of the most successful cyclists of the modern generation winning many classics, stages in Grand Tours and even the odd week long tour. Cancellara will be going for stage victories in the time trials and act as a domestique to the rest of the team on the flatlands.

Tony Gallopin

Tony Gallopin is a surprise addition into the Radioshack Tour De France team- as Bruyneel tends to avoid taking sprinters to these events. However, he impressed last year finishing 4th on stage 5 and is a big prospect for the future. Expect to see him mixing it up on the later stages when the quality of sprinters may be slightly thinner.

Chris Horner

In the twilight years of his career Chris Horner, still consistently puts in top draw performances. This has been seen in his 2011 victory in the Tour of California and coming 8th there in 2012. However, the Tour of California is not a Grand Tour- with Chris Horner’s only respectable GC position in a Grand Tour being the 9th in the 2010 Tour De France. If Horner is near his best he could contend for a top 10 position. However, I believe him either going for a stage victory and him assisting Andreas Kloden and Frank Schleck is more likely. Saying this, Horner will be happy to be going to the Tour at all, after being left off the long list and been put in at the last minute for, perhaps, his last Tour.

Andreas Kloden

Kloden is undoubtedly a top draw GC rider. He has a proven track record in week long tours and in Grand Tours- with 2 second positions in the Tour de France previously. However, his form this season has been far from outstanding. But, if he performs the way everyone knows he can- it is impossible to rule out a top 10 finish.

Maxime Monfort

With Andy Schleck not at the Tour and Frank ruling himself out of contention for leader- a rider who is usually relegated to helping the Schleck’s will have to step up. The obvious candidates for this will be Chris Horner and Andreas Kloden. However, I would tip Maxime Monfort to be a dark horse to challenge for a top 10 position- if he is given the right support. He is a Wigginsesque rider- meaning he is a very good time triallist who holds his own in the mountains. If he is at anywhere near his best in this time trial heavy Tour- he could be a potential leader of this team.

Yaroslav Popovych

Popovych has never fulfilled the promise of his early career- with his highlights being 3rd in the 2003 Giro D’Italia. He gained 5th the following year and 8th in the 2007 Tour De France; winning the white jersey but has struggled to be a real threat to the leaders since. When Popovych signed for the Discovery Channel Team it saw him pick up the job of a climbing domestique for Contador. He has held this role in each team he has ridden for since- with no real chance for him to shine. I don’t see this changing here but with the Schleck’s not in contention maybe it is time for Popovych to have a resurgence?

Frank Schleck

After brother Andy’s withdrawal from the Tour, everyone expected Frank to become the sole leader of the Radioshack team- due to his pure ability as a climber. However, he has officially ruled himself out of the GC race- focusing on a stage victory and perhaps a different jersey. Schleck has 5 top 10’s in Grand Tours (4 being at the Tour and 2 being podium finishes) meaning he has previous experience of doing well here. Even though he has ruled himself out of the overall- if he finds himself anywhere near the front with a week to go, you can bet your life he will have a go for a podium.

Jens Voigt

Jens Voigt is widely regarded as the best rouleur in the peloton and is also inclined to go it alone on days where the peloton might take a ‘day off’. Like many riders in the Radioshack team, Voigt has got even better with age; getting top individual performances in lesser one week tours and then putting everything on the line to help the Schleck’s. In this years Tour you can expect to see more of the same from this strong man.

 

Haimar Zubeldia

Zubeldia is another member of Radioshack’s ‘old guard’ and one with sufficient Grand Tour pedigree- finishing in the top 10 of the Tour De France 3 times and in the Vuelta once. Even though he has high positions in past Tours, this was a long time ago and it would take a lot to see him compete for team leader. However, he will work for whoever they decide their leader is and maybe get a stage win if he sniffs his chance.

Overall, Radioshack do have a very strong squad for this Tour despite the loss of Andy Schleck and the non-selection of the Dane Jakob Fuglsang. However, they need to work out who their leader is going to be early in the race if they want any chance of a victory.